Seeing Into The Future

Playing Alice In Wonderland

I'd like to think of myself as futurist, not merely trendspotter.

I've become aware of some of my basic methods for forecasting / predictions . Let's give a name to those methods and long remembering:



1. DELPHI

2. ANALOGY / MODELS

3. EXTRAPOLATION

4. STATISTICAL

5. CAUSAL

I won't go in details. That's what works for me. Period.
Apply with common sense. It's all situational.

And remember, nothing is as it seems ! Read Alice in Wonderland for more insight.

How Can Smell Change Your Decisions?

Smell is a potent wizard that transports you across thousands of miles and all the years you have lived... Helen Keller

The sense of smells enters into your decision making far more than you might think. For instance, it can influence your choice of a mate, home or other purchases or even decisions to hire.

Interestingly, the sense of smell played a big role in the lives of our earliest ancestors since it impacted their existence. In fact, people's emotional, physical, and even sexual lives are intensely shaped by both their responses to and interpretations of different scents.

Here're findings from Rachel Herz's newly published book, The Scent of Desire: Discovering Our Enigmatic Sense of Smell, that show how much the sense of smell influences our lives...

1. Connects to memory and can be used as a memory aid
2. Vital to sexual attraction
3. Crucial for survival of our species
4. Loss of this sense drives some folks to suicide
5. Newborns and mothers recognize each other by scent
6. Influences people's choices
7. Affects sales and marketing strategies

Here's why... The sense of smell's hard-wired deep into the brain's sensitive areas, that process emotion [amygdala], and, motivation and memory [hippocampus].

Smell Affects Sales and Marketing... ''People judge a product based on the way it smells,'' said Dr. Alan Hirsch of the Smell and Taste Treatment and Research Foundation in Chicago. ''If it smells good, we perceive it as good.''

For instance, "most people like the aroma of a new car for a variety of reasons, including smell-induced nostalgia." Tim Moran notes in today's New York Times.

Some realtors advise folks selling a home to bake an apple pie in the oven when they bring a potential buyer because the "homey scent" can evoke pleasant memories in the heart of a customer. And other methods such as vanilla candles, or even carpet cleaning can make the difference.

Be sure to keep calm in an interview because if you sweat too much, the odor can turn off the manager and others involved. People get aggressive and move quickly from offensive odors. Can you imagine too sweet perfume... a whiff of bad breath... a car showroom that's not fresh?

Your homework ahead really counts!

OK, take it from here.... Thoughts?

Decide in a Snap!

Do you rely on your gut or consider several options for your major decisions? While many folks agonize, others make quick choices that work for and not against them. Deadlines influence people's outcomes and here's how...

Latest research shows that snap decisions generally work best because you're forced to process quickly. Snap decisions build on intelligence stored our unconscious mind. In his recent book, Gut Feelings, Gerd Gigerenzer pinpoints why intuition trumps reason when putting together stocks for a portfolio...

Interestingly, the less financial knowledge behind choices the better. For instance, women queried by the Gigrenzer's German research team recognized fewer stocks than men, but when they created a portfolio based on familiar companies, they earned more than an equivalent group chosen by the men.

Snap decisions go awry with too much information...

Intuition, it seems, is not some sort of mystical chemical reaction but a neurologically based behavior that evolved to ensure that we humans respond quickly when faced with a dilemma. Too much data throws a monkey wrench into the process. The more variables we consider, the harder it is to make the "right" decision--as anyone who has faced an aisle full of shampoos knows.

And, Malcolm Gladwell author of Blink points out snap decision-making's fragile and easily disrupted.

Gladwell discovered, when asked to rank brands of strawberry jams from best- to worst-tasting without looking at the labels, most people give the same answers. However, when asked to describe what each jam tasted like, these line-ups vary dramatically, and lower-quality jams could be ranked higher.

So wisdom's boosted by frugality.

Are there strategies we can use to get around this? To try and trick yourself into 'snap' judgement?

Or do we just allow the processes to keep rolling in the background - without giving it undue focus - trusting that we'll make the decision when the time's right? From what Gladwell and Gigrenzer discoverd, we'll have to prevent mulling it over too much!

So, here's a tactic...

Imagine your best answer as the red dot on a target board. You mentally throw a dart at that target. No delay. No distractions. No doubts.

Simply throw the dart from the talent pools already existent in your mind and enjoy the results. And then, don't look back. Just trust it. The secret's in just letting go!

Joanna Young queried how to make a snap decision when your deadline's at the end of the week... So we'll be looking for results...

How Do Doctors Think and How Do You?

Do you take time to step back and take a good look at the basis for your decisions? Jerome Groopman, hematologist at Harvard University took an in-depth look at doctors' decision-making and concentrated on what leads to mistakes. Groopman's findings not only teach us how to approach our doctors with a little more savvy, but also prod us to think deeply about decision-making.

You'd be surprised to know that 80% of medical mistakes are the result of logical fallacies, not being aware of all possibilities and communication with the patient. And, 20% result from technical errors such as wrong test results.

Harvard hematologist, Jerome Groopman's curiosity was piqued about doctors' thinking processes when a friend's eight-year-old daughter was misdiagnosed by neurologists and pediatricians. The young girl began to suffer with headaches. Doctors thought stress at home or a sinus condition caused the headaches. But a few months later it was apparent the girl had a brain tumor. Why did doctors draw conclusions and overlook a possibility?

Curiosity led Groopman, also a staff writer for the New Yorker, to research what causes doctors' thinking mistakes...And, you'll find answers to his query in, How Doctors Think, published in March. The book's an engaging and fascinating read that can help doctors improve diagnosis procedures or for patients as they interact with doctors. What's the basis for your critical decisions?

Groopman finds that most errors result from...

Stereotyping - A nervous young woman loses weight. Does that mean she's anorexic?

Cases Seem Similar - A doctor may diagnose a fever and headache as flu during flu season. But could it be meningitis?

Acting Too Quickly - At times doctors choose to do something rather than nothing when in doubt.

Emotions - Groopman found that emotions come into play more than doctors might admit. For instance, if a doctor is fond of a patient he may overlook a deadly disease because he doesn't want it to be true. And on the other hand if patients sense a doctor doesn't like them, they need to go to someone else.

By asking, What else could it be? both doctors and patients can begin to look deeper at problems and make better decisions.

How do you make critical decisions both at a physician's office or...at work?....